Democrat LG Candidate, Gene Rossi predicts come from behind victory!
Blue Virginia Now Fully In Charge of Sleepy, Scaredy-Cat Northam Campaign?
Our new morning line odds on the 2017 Virginia gubernatorial races are out!
WASHINGTON, D.C. —The primary election for both of Virginia’s major political parties is Tuesday, June 13. Any Virginia registered voter can request a ballot for either party. The nominations are decided by plurality, there is no run-off. The highest vote getter wins. Primary voters are not bound in the general election.
GOP Governor- Primary
Ed Gillespie – 1:5
Gillespie is now the overwhelming prohibitive favorite to be the GOP nominee.
Ingraham Mulls Senate Race
Former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore, who is planning a run for U.S. Senator in 2018, is joining us live today in our D.C. studios from 9:00 -10:30 a.m.We’ll find out what he thinks about the incoming world scene, our incoming President Donald J. Trump and…:radio talk show host Laura Ingraham, who is reportedly seriously considering a race for the Virginia for U.S. Senate in 2018.
No “Gimme” for Ingraham
Virginia Republicans are unlikely to “clear the field” for a prospective Ingraham U.S. senate race.
If the television and radio personality decides to enter the race for the Va. GOP nomination to run against Democratic U.S. Senator Tim Kaine in 2018, she will undoubtedly face a fierce and bruising nomination battle.
Other candidates who are likely to battle for the Virginia Republican Senate nomination include former Gov. Jim Gilmore, former candidate for President Carly Fiorina, Va. Delegate Jimmie Massie and early Trump supporter and Silver Star recipient Bert Kameaaloha Mizusawa, a major general in the United States Army Reserve.
U.S. Rep. Dave Brat (R-Va/7) has already told Sen. Kaine he does not plan to run for U.S. senate in 2018. We also assume U.S. Rep. Barbara Comstock (R-VA/10) is not inclined to give up her House seat to run a long shot bid for U.S. Senate.
Laura, welcome to Virginia politics, where candidates don’t have limo drivers, first class airline tickets and 24 hour green room hair and makeup teams at their beck and call. See you at the Buchanan County GOP unit meeting, and the Danville Waffle House!
Morning Line Odds on 2018 GOP Senate Nomination (Primary)
Carly Fiorina 2:1
Jim Gilmore 3:1
Laura Ingraham 9:2
Bert Mizusawa 6:1
Jimmie Massie 12:1
We can only imagine how the now infamous phone call from former Va. Democratic Congressman Tom Periello to Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam on Wednesday night went down. It likely went something like this:
Perriello: Hi Ralph, Tom Perriello here. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!
Northam: Same to you! I’d love to have you come to my big fundraiser headlined by Governor McAuliffe on Saturday night! Can you make it?
Perriello: No Ralph, I’m busy. I have my own fundraiser scheduled. I’m running for governor.
Northam: In 2021? Wow, that’s great planning! Very impressive!
Perriello: Uh, no Ralph. I’m running against you in June.
Northam: [Silence]. Well Merry freaking Christmas.
Regardless of whom you may support, Perriello and his team — starting with Democratic consultant Don Mark — brilliantly executed this political bomb.
It has to go down as one of the most effective non-announcements in Virginia political history.
First, it’s been the best-kept secret in Virginia politics. Knowing this landscape as I do, if a politico so much as goes to the bathroom one too many times, the state’s bevvy of bloggers manages to pick it up. Leaks are commonplace. Nothing is sacred.
So this announcement took the entire state’s insiders by surprise.
No one I talked to saw it coming.
Second, Perriello announces it by first calling Northam personally. Another stellar political move.
Third, the former one-term U.S. House Rep. from Virginia’s 5th congressional district does it a mere five days prior to the start of the 2017 Virginia General Assembly.
Northam, as Lt. governor, can’t fund-raise and he’s essentially campaign handcuffed for 60 days while he has to preside over the state senate, stuck in Richmond with gavel in hand.
Meanwhile, Perriello has two months of free reign where he can play short-term catch up.
This campaign launch should be taught at UVA’s Sorensen Institute for Political Leadership.
In fact, it should merit its own chapter in their textbook. We even have the title: “How to undermine the entire Democratic establishment, the DPV, their big donors and the incumbent governor in all one fell swoop” – by Tom Perriello.
PERRIELLO IS THE DARLING OF VIRGINIA PROGRESSIVES
Perriello presents a host of challenges for the one time inevitability of the Northam for governor juggernaut.
He is a darling of the Democrats’ progressive wing of the Party, as he stood heroically by President Barack Obama’s agenda during his one House term in Washington.
Throwing caution to the wind after ousting incumbent conservative icon Virgil Goode in the 2008 Obama election wave, Perriello backed Obama’s every policy initiative with fearless vigor while representing a historically Republican district in central and south side Virginia.
He never wavered, and became an Obama favorite.
As a result, Perriello was subsequently defeated by GOP challenger Robert Hurt in the Tea Party election of 2010, helping Republicans to take back control of the House.
Perriello is likely to energize the more progressive non-establishment wing of the Virginia Democratic Party.
They’ve been itching for a fight.
Now they have one.
While Bernie Sanders got pummeled by Hillary Clinton in the Super Tuesday Democrat primary last March, its hard to gauge how much of the center-left Democratic primary coalition vote will be locked in for Northam come June 13.
PERRIELLO IS NO ANEESH CHOPRA
Northam came from behind in the 2013 Democratic primary to knock off one-time team Obama Chief Technology Officer Aneesh Chopra, who served as an Assistant to the President and Associate Director for Technology in the West Wing.
But that was then and this is now.
Chopra turned out to be a weaker candidate than many of his progressive supporters had hoped. Sometimes standoffish, and not personally engaging, Chopra ran without name recognition and laid claim to no inherent base.
Perriello has none of these flaws. He has strengths in key areas where Chopra showed weakness.
The former state senator from the Eastern Shore and Norfolk also benefited in 2013 from some Republicans, Independents and moderates crossing over to vote in a Democratic primary for Northam – or against Chopra. The Republicans nominated their candidates by way of a statewide convention in May, so they had nothing going on in the June primary.
When the GOP nominated Bishop E.W. Jackson for LG, some Republicans who could not support Jackson saw Northam and as acceptable alternative, in lieu of Chopra.
I know this for a fact. I led “Republicans for Northam” in the 2013 June Democratic primary.
Northam will not have the luxury of those disaffected open primary voters this go around.
Republicans have a hotly contested primary election on the same day and they will be otherwise pre-occupied.
So Northam has to win with only Democrat primary voters.
The Lt. governor has very few enemies.
He has raised a lot of money, and I’m told by sources close to Northam that their candidate has locked in the support of the entire Democratic General Assembly, as well as Governor Terry McAuliffe and his political big money friends.
Several Democrat state senate caucus members I talked to expressed their displeasure with Perriello’s candidacy.
One member of the Democratic senate caucus leadership who requested anonymity to speak freely, blasted the upstart candidate. “I guess Clinton lost so Tom needs a job. Ralph has locked up our caucus and our big donors. I don’t see the votes for the guy.”
Virginia Senate Minority Leader Dick Saslaw (D-Fairfax) said the Perriello candidacy was going nowhere. “Perriello couldn’t even hold his own Congressional district and both his state senator and his delegate who know him are supporting Ralph Northam.”
Northam is the early chalk for sure, but Perriello is not to be taken lightly.
This has the trappings of a dogfight.
Vogel for Lt. Governor
Veteran Virginia campaign operative Pat Trueman was named campaign manager for the Jill Vogel for LG race, giving him his first shot at running a statewide race.
Well regarded, Trueman ran Rob Bell’s shop until the Delegate dropped out of the AG race for personal reasons.
Formerly with the political consulting firm Carlyle Gregory, Trueman ran Eddie Whitlock’s unsuccessful state senate primary bid in 2015.
Trueman sold suits for Brooks Brothers in Georgetown prior to getting into political campaign management. “I still sell suits,” Trueman said. “Only now they have people in them.”
Reeves for Lt. Governor
Bryce Reeves lost his campaign manager, Brittany Carter, who got a gig with the Trump transition team in D.C. Sources say Trump Administration chief of staff and former RNC Chair Reince Preibus called her personally.
Replacing Carter is Jordan Wiggins, former director for the Virginia Marco Rubio for President campaign.
Editor’s note #1 to Jordan: We at Team Trump kicked your butt last Super Tuesday in Virginia dude. Just sayin’.
Wiggins also did field work for Rubio in Iowa and most recently was National Field Director for the National Republican Congressional Committee.
Editor’s note #2 to Jordan: Yeah, we at Team Trump beat you in Iowa, too. So welcome back to Virginia, where you’re 0-2 Vs. Team Trump.
Emily Brewer for Delegate
Oh, what could have been.
Suffolk entrepreneur and former Republican political operative Emily Brewer launched a GOP nomination challenge to embattled incumbent Rick Morris in HD 64, which includes parts of Suffolk, Prince George, South Hampton and Isle of Wight.
Morris had been charged with a number of felonies involving abuse and child endangerment, which prompted House leadership to call for his resignation.
At the time, Morris looked like political dead man walking.
That’s when Brewer jumped in the race.
Since then, Morris has been cleared of all but one felony charge, and is likely to request a continuance on the last one until after the nomination selection process is complete.
In an email to supporters after his initial hearing, Morris wrote that the one felony child cruelty charge he still faces is “extremely broad, ambiguous, and undefined” under state law, which leaves much to the interpretation and discretion of police, prosecutors and the jury. His email said the presiding judge also expressed concern with the statute.
“I am confident that in due time I will be completely vindicated,” Morris wrote. “However, this process must play out and I respect that…I will continue to defend myself from these false accusations until the sole remaining charge is dismissed as well.”
This turn of events puts Brewer in an underdog scenario.
If Morris chooses an open primary in lieu of a convention or a firehouse caucus, Brewer would be positioned as the tenth name on the GOP primary ballot, not a good place for an upstart challenger against an incumbent.
Right now, Morris is a heavy favorite to win re-election – assuming it’s a primary.
But don’t count Brewer out.
Mike Kemp, former political director with the Glenn Davis for Lt. Governor campaign, has been named campaign manager for Brewer.
Kemp’s background includes stints as regional field director for Wayne Coleman, Ben Chafin and Nancy Dye for state senate. His presence, and Brewer’s tenacity, put this race in play.
Delegate Ron Villanueva vs. Bill Haley
Here we go again. Powerful House Transportation Chairman Ron Villanueva (R-Va. Beach) is being challenged for the GOP nomination by Tea Party activist and Chesapeake resident Bill Haley.
Haley ran a primary against Sen. John Cosgrove (R-Chesapeake) in 2015.
Haley is becoming the Harold Stassen of Chesapeake politics. Oh wait: Harold Stassen actually won a race.
This is a Villanueva blowout.
Vogel – Reeves Dust Up Shuffles the LG Deck — Fasten your seat belts.
On the surface, GOP Lt. Gov. candidate Del. Glenn Davis (R-Va. Beach) is the short-term political beneficiary of the shady shenanigans by the mere fact he’s not involved and can stay focused on his jobs message.
Before the story broke, State Sen. Jill Vogel (R-Winchester) was the clear front-runner in this race, and its difficult to project where this accusation by State Sen. Bryce Reeves (R-Stafford) will lead, especially if he files a civil lawsuit.
But that is problematic because the false email in question did not state a fact, but instead suggested a “rumor was going around” that Reeves was unfaithful to his wife.
This is not the classic definition of defamation under Virginia law.
Vogel’s camp has vehemently denied the allegations of concocting the phony email and her campaign manager questioned why Reeves made the accusations to the Washington Post before coming to their candidate directly.
But Reeves disputed this account and said he gave the Vogels ample notice to work this out before going public.
House District 85 – Turn Out The Lights, This Party’s Over
Rocky Holcomb is heavily favored to replace U.S. House Rep. Scott Taylor (R-VA/D2) in Virginia Beach’s 85th District. His Democratic challenger, Cheryl Turpin, although running a spirited campaign, is grossly underfunded in a solidly GOP district. Holcomb is running a risk-free say nothing controversial-just turn out my vote base-and get to Richmond campaign. Wake me up when it’s over.
Senate District 9 – Snooze Fest: Jen McClellan Mails It In
House member Jennifer McClellan – a rising star of the VA Dems — is the overwhelming favorite to win U.S. House Rep. Don McEachin’s (D-VA/4) old state senate seat. Her ballot opponent is colorful Libertarian candidate Corey M. Fauchonier. This is another snooze fest. Mail it in, Jen.
The Godfather Lurks: Senate District 22 – Toss up
Now it gets interesting. Saslaw’s been much too quiet these days. Makes me wonder.
The former state senate district occupant, U.S. Rep. Tom Garrett (R-VA/5) is going to Washington, D.C.
A Democratic upset here flips the state senate to The Godfather, and makes State Senator Dick Saslaw (D-Fairfax) the majority leader. On paper, this should be an easy win for GOP nominee Mark Peake, who routed former Goochland Supervisor Ken Peterson in a December district convention.
Garrret and Trump carried the district handily five weeks ago.
But the Democrats have managed to wage a competitive race and have fielded a very viable candidate, former Fluvanna County Sheriff Ryant Washington.
Washington appeared on our show yesterday. Click here to listen to #JFRS on-demand. To add Republican insult to injury, Joe Hines, director of economic development at a local engineering firm, is running as a self proclaimed “independent conservative” and could cut into Peake’s GOP vote margin. Combine that with Democratic enthusiasm in the first post Trump election that matters, and this could be a barnburner.
Hines is for real. This is not some gadfly candidate who filed signatures. Hines, a Duke graduate, is a serious contender running a viable campaign. He isn’t likely to win, but he can change the outcome.
If Hines gets 12-15 percent of the vote, Washington wins and The Godfather takes over the state senate.
Some Republicans in the district I’ve talked to are taking this race much too lighlty. It could bite them.
It’s a tale of two cities for Virginia Republicans as over 750 statewide GOP elected officials, wannabe politicians, and activists are expected to descend on Richmond this Friday and Saturday for the 2016 RPV Donald W. Huffman Advance.
The annual Virginia GOP love-fest, held this year at the OMNI hotel in downtown Richmond, is dubbed: “Take back Richmond.”
While Republicans are jubilant about winning the White House with Trump, they also have to reconcile this victory with their dismay over losing seven consecutive statewide races. In fact, the Virginia Republicans’ last victory dates back to 2009.
Although Corey Stewart was ousted as Donald Trump’s campaign chairman in Virginia this fall, he’s still anchoring his gubernatorial campaign to the GOP president-elect.
In the wake of Trump’s victory, the chairman of the Prince William County Board of Supervisors took aim at Ed Gillespie who, like Stewart, is seeking the Republican nomination for governor.
“Ed Gillespie treated Donald Trump like he had typhoid,” Stewart said in a post-election interview with the Richmond Times-Dispatch. “He would not appear with him on stage. He would not mention his name unless he was condemning him.”
The record on the first part of Stewart’s statement – that Gillespie would not appear with Trump – doesn’t lend itself to a fact-check because it requires us to get into Gillespie’s head. Gillespie never did appear on stage with Trump in Virginia, but there’s no evidence he refused to do so. Gillespie’s campaign says he was never invited by Trump’s camp and we’ve found no information to contradict that.
So we’ll fact check the second part of Stewart’s statement – that Gillespie only mentioned Trump’s name when he was “condemning him.”
John Fredericks, who predicted Trump’s rise, overcame a stutter to host his radio show in Chesapeake
John Fredericks insists on looking professional for visitors, even at 6 a.m. when his radio show starts.
“No gibberish. No nonsense. Just common sense,” he told listeners of “The John Fredericks Show” on a recent morning, using one of his signature lines.
He talked about domestic terrorist attacks, Donald Trump and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s destruction of Wells Fargo CEO John Stumpf during a three-hour grilling before the Senate Banking Committee.
“A complete creep – this guy is the ultimate dirtbag CEO of society, right?” Fredericks said of Stumpf. “Another Wall Street looter, part of the bankster globalist crowd.”
Of Warren’s scolding, he said, “This is why I love this woman. … This guy should be in prison.”
Fredericks doesn’t have an easy political label. He’s the co-chairman of the Trump Campaign in Virginia, and he’s been predicting Trump will win the presidency since long before almost anyone else. He endorsed Virginia Democrat Mark Warner for re-election in 2014 against Republican Ed Gillespie. And he said he likes Gov. Terry McAuliffe and thinks he’s doing a good job.
Read the full article here.